확률 보행 & Brownian Motion
Ito’s process
dx = a(x,t)dt+b(x,t)dz
Generalized Weiner process
dx = adt+bdz
Brownian motion
ds/s = μdt+σdz
랜덤워크의 시간의 간격이 매우 작다면 이는Brownian Motion에 가깝게 된다.
The Stock Price Assumption
주식의 가격을 S
매우 짧은 시간의 간격을 Dt 라 하자.
주식의 기대수익률
market, we, 美ME+ also is looking to expand our business.
This report is divided into two parts, the first half; we will talk about the Japanese market as a whole cultural risk, country risk, and currency risk. And in the later half; we will analysis the cosmetics market in Japan, and describe our company’s market strategy. After that, we will predict future prospects of our company.
risk
위험 회피 형(Risk Averse) : 부에 대한 한계효용이 체감하는 투자자
위험 중립 형(RiskNeutral): 부에 대한 한계효용이 상수인 투자자
위험 추구 형(Risk Seeking): 부에 대한 한계효용이 체증하는 투자자
효용함수 Utility Function: U = E ( r ) – 0.005 A s 2 ,
II. The Definition of VaR
Value at Risk (VaR)
Maximum loss not exceeded with a given
probability defined as the confidence level,
over a given period of time.
III. Interpretation of VaR
The Question Being Asked in VaR
“What loss level is such that we are X %
confident it will not be exceeded
in N business days?”
Confidence Level
Probability that Por
risk of a series of deficit rather than a short-term achievement.
(Figure 3) Cash Flow Statements Summary from 2003 to 2010
Fiscal year Net CF provided by operating activities Net CF used in investing activities Net CF provided by financing activities Net change
in cash Cash and equivalents at the beginning of the year Cash and equivalents at the end of the year
10 4,730 (12,230) 7,807 307 66